Wall Street megamergers have not hit the tape as the second quarter comes to a close
Animal spirits have been kept at bay, but there are indications that the M&A tide could turn soon
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans
Another pair of IPO gangbusters played out last week. On the heels of the outright fervor that came with CoreWeave (NASDAQ:) and Circle Internet Group (NYSE:) earlier in Q2, shares of Voyager Technologies (NYSE:) soared by 82% on their first day of trading. The space- and defense-technology company saw its stock rise by triple digits (percent) intraday last Wednesday—investors were clearly excited about the firm’s niche.
Voyager partners with firms like Airbus, Mitsubishi, and Palantir (NASDAQ:) in low-orbit endeavors, and with being among this year’s top-performing industry groups, it’s easy to see why shares lit up screens early on.
A Spate of Successful Equity Launches
While the , the window seems cracked open. Following Voyager’s stock taking flight mid-week, Chime Financial (NASDAQ:) made its much-anticipated debut, raising $864 million after pricing above its initial estimated range. CHYM was music to the bulls’ ears, surging 39% on Thursday.
Brokerage platform eToro (NASDAQ:) and virtual physical-therapy company Hinge Health (NYSE:) are other notable go-public stories in 2025, raising $310 million and $864 million, respectively, both of which priced above their anticipated ranges.
So, animal spirits are alive and well, right? Not so fast. According to Wall Street Horizon’s data, dealmaking numbers remain depressed. Total M&A announcements are merely flat on a year-on-year basis, continuing a trend that began some three years ago, after the capital markets boom of late 2020 and throughout 2021.
Still-Sluggish M&A Trends Heading into 2H 2025
Source: Wall Street Horizon
The hope was that a more favorable administration in the White House and a business-friendly Congress would get the ball rolling with looser regulations, fueling corporate decision-makers to shake hands and ink agreements.
That bullish backdrop has not panned out. Instead, tariffs make the macro environment uncertain, and CEOs and CFOs are apparently unwilling to strike deals. Still, with massive rallies in some recent IPO stocks, bankers’ hopes may just be rekindled.
The Deals Are There, Just on the Small Side
It’s not a total M&A malaise, though. 2025 has brought about a rash of smaller buyouts valued at under a few billion dollars. In the first quarter, PepsiCo (NASDAQ:) agreed to buy prebiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.6 billion. In the mortgage space, Rocket Companies (NYSE:) purchased Redfin (NASDAQ:) for $1.75 billion.
Then, just last month, Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:) scooped up Foot Locker (NYSE:) in a $2.4 billion cash and debt transaction. The shoe space is indeed kicking up activity—recall in early May that private equity firm 3G Capital agreed to buy Skechers USA (NYSE:) for $9.4 billion. In the tech space and during the throes of earnings season, Salesforce (NYSE:) struck an $8 billion deal to purchase Informatica (INFA), bolstering its AI capabilities.
To close out Q2, other deals have caught investors’ attention, with the most notable being Brown & Brown’s (BRO) $9.8 billion acquisition of Accession Risk Management. In the Health Care sector, BioNTech (NASDAQ:) expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of CureVac (NASDAQ:), a $1.25 billion equity deal, marking the end of a decades-long rivalry. Overseas, luxury goods maker Kering recently acquired Lenti, an Italian eyewear manufacturer.
Macro Jitters Lingering, Keeping Purse Strings Tight
Are these the blockbuster megamergers everyone longed for a year ago? Certainly not, but it does prove that the environment can be conducive to risk-taking under the right circumstances. Moreover, with peak tariff fear hopefully in the rearview mirror, at least according to the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, the back half of 2025 might just feature an M&A rebirth.
Along with cooling trade-war concerns, a more upbeat outlook on the economy would likely spur deals. We’ve seen strategists reduce their recession forecasts, and online prediction markets suggest a less than one-in-three chance of a two-quarter US economic contraction this year.
More confidence at the macro level could help boost the appeal of buyouts and partnerships. And with central banks cutting at a fast clip (the US Federal Reserve notwithstanding), an easing of global monetary policy may make borrowing cheaper, enabling more leveraged deals and refinancing. Citi’s head of banking expects more private-public “get-togethers,” which may offer a twist on the longed-for M&A upcycle.
End-of-Season Shareholder Meetings Could be the Tell on M&A
The second quarter’s final few trading days might actually present fresh breadcrumbs on the M&A pipelines heading into Q3. Ahead of Independence Day in the US, there’s an active slate of shareholder meetings scheduled.
Such events bring together stakeholders, and management teams present their strategic initiatives, which may include hints at key investments, such as M&A. Our data reveal that more than 1,800 Annual General Meetings will take place or have already occurred this month.
Shareholder Meeting Volume Remains High Through June
Source: Wall Street Horizon
If you’re looking for clues on overall C-suite vibes, you might want to monitor The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence, which plunged in the second quarter to its lowest level since Q4 2022—a time when recession fears were extremely high. It was the largest quarter-on-quarter decline in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1976. It’s reasonable to expect a recovery in the next quarterly update in August, and if such a rebound comes to pass, then it may signal a greater collective risk appetite.
The Bottom Line
Dealmaking isn’t dead. There has been a steady diet of small to medium-sized mergers and acquisitions, but an outright M&A bonanza has simply not materialized. Global activity is also not all that bad, with significant corporate moves having been inked this quarter in Europe and Asia. But with an emerging IPO wave sweeping Wall Street, macro conditions may be shifting in favor of larger M&A transactions in the second half.