This table has been posted several times over the last eight weeks, showing the progression of the “expected” EPS and revenue growth rates for Q2’25.
Source: LSEG data
Q2 ’25 earnings started last week, and all the large-cap financials showed solid numbers: JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:) (JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:), Bank of America (NYSE:), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) and even American Express (NYSE:).
Note the darkened horizontal line on the left side of the table above: it indicates that the expected Q2’25 EPS and revenue growth rates bottomed around the Memorial Day weekend, rather than the week of every quarter, which is the typical pattern.
Note how, with Q1’25 expected EPS growth rates, the Q1’25 EPS growth rate bottomed on April 4th, 2025 (first column of data), versus how, with Q2’25, the aforementioned bottoming of the growth rates occurred a full month earlier, around the end of May 2025.
Does this matter? This earnings growth rate pattern has been relatively steady for the last 15–20 years, so yes, the fact that the estimated growth rates bottomed a month earlier – in my opinion – shows a higher degree of confidence in the 2nd quarter ’25 EPS and revenue estimates.
While only 59 companies have reported Q2’25 results so far (23 of which are financial sector companies), the upside surprise is +7.2%, and the biggest upside surprise, by sector, is in the financial sector at +10%. The revenue upside surprise so far in Q2’25 is +1.95%, also above average, but that figure will likely decline over the quarter.
The most significant market cap weight within the financial sector in the S&P 500 is Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:), which was up just 4.44% as of Thursday night’s market close, July 17th. The second-largest financial name in the S&P 500 by market capitalization is J.P. Morgan, and it was up 22.6% as of Thursday night’s market close.
Conclusion:
The early results for Q2’25 S&P 500 earnings look solid. Expect another decent quarter, although with the new August 1 deadline for tariffs, the anxiety and angst may now shift to the third quarter of ’25.
Or maybe tariffs shouldn’t have been a concern to begin with.
What’s shocking about the Q1’25 market drama is that the expected growth rate for the Q1’25 S&P 500 EPS growth rate bottomed at +7.8% in early April ’25, while the actual quarter-end growth rate peaked at +13.7%, or a 75% increase.
Let’s see if Q2 ’25 estimates growth rates can beat Q1 ’25’s numbers.
Disclaimer: None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Thanks for reading.