Things should stabilize as markets make a run to test the March swing low. I would expect to see a retest of last week’s lows at some point over the coming couple of months, but for now, bulls can breathe a little. On the longer-term outlook, we have ’death crosses` between 50-day and 200-day MAs across lead indices, which will define action for the rest of the year.
The gain was modest but consistent, as trading volume eased off to something more typical. It will take a couple of weeks before we can look for a net bullish return in technicals, but intermediate stochastics [39,1] are close to crossing the midpoint of 50 (a reliable marker for a bull market).
The () had experienced the largest level of underperformance leading into 2025, and so was the most vulnerable to the sell off triggered by Trump’s tariffs. As with the S&P, a move back to March lows (and psychological resistance of $200) looks reasonable.
The is likely to be the first index to test the March swing low which will also come with a test of the 20-day MA. What happens here will likely determine action in peer indices. If this manages to break past 17,235 then the 50-day MA comes the next target to look at.
The , like the , should be challenging its 20-day MA this week. Any retest of the 3,400 level will be a strong buy; at current levels, investors should be lapping up semiconductor stocks.
Nasdaq Breadth Metrics are at levels last seen during the 2022 swing low (and 2020 before that), both of which proved to be great buying opportunities. Do not ignore them here.
We have a buying opportunity here – and there will be others – but playing for a trade as opposed to an investment will be much harder.