Markets are drifting towards a retest of April swing lows, but not all indices did so following tests of March swing lows. These losses feel a little early, and I still would look for a rally to March lows before they get back to April lows – so it ’feels bullish’, despite what markets look like they are doing. Volume is falling as markets drift lower, which is also bullish, but technicals remain firmly bearish.
The () closed with a ’buy’ signal in the MACD as the index counters with a new period of relative outperformance to peer indices. It’s still a long way from the March swing low, but if it’s able to rally past $190, it will set up a new period of higher lows and higher highs.
The tagged the March swing low off its one-day rally (large white candlesticks following a sell-off are bearish) and is heading back to the April swing low.
The MACD flashed a new ’sell’ signal, returning to a net bearish technical picture. Watch for a tag of 5,000, this could be a nice ’buy’ trigger with a GTC buy order.
The has lost the most ground relative to its recovery rally. If there is a full April low retest, this will be the first index to do so. Interestingly, it still holds to a weak ’buy’ trigger in the MACD despite such losses. While the S&P 500 may be considered a GTC buy opportunity, the Nasdaq may be a present buying opportunity. The key downside is the sharp shift in relative performance against the Russell 2000, but I wouldn’t hold this too much against it.
For today, look for a bright start from the Nasdaq, and if that doesn’t pan out, wait for the S&P 500 to reach 5,000. It seems a little early for the index to continue accelerating lower, given the reprieve in Trump’s tariffs, but the market will decide.