The federal government could have a partial shutdown beginning Oct. 1 unless President Donald Trump and both parties in Congress can reach a budget deal that has so far included scant negotiation.
Congressional Democrats feel stung by the mass layoffs and program cuts that followed the last stopgap spending deal in March. Many now argue there is little value to locking in those cutbacks with a budget that extends spending they already view as unacceptable.
The White House is threatening to enact even deeper cuts if a shutdown happens and Trump has publicly said “don’t even bother” working with Democrats. That seems an especially risky approach given that GOP margins in both the House and Senate are too thin to move unilaterally.
Here’s what you need to know about a possible shutdown.
What gets shut down?
“Nonessential” government functions are affected by any shutdown.
As a practical matter, national defense, air traffic systems and law enforcement operations, including the courts, are not directly affected, at least not initially.
Things like passport applications to the State Department and government inspections from the Food and Drug Administration may be suspended.
The Postal Service typically continues its operations as usual.
National parks may be closed and even if states like Arizona temporarily oversee the Grand Canyon, for example, things such as maintenance and trash collection may be suspended during a shutdown.
Social Security checks continue to be processed, but other services with that agency can be disrupted. It’s the same for Medicare services.
The reality is that government services operate on a limited basis in a shutdown and can have unexpected consequences the longer a standoff goes on.
Do government workers get paid?
Some, such as postal workers, do get paid as usual.
Many essential workers don’t get paid at the time of the shutdown but by law they receive back pay after the shutdown is over.
Technically, nonessential government workers are furloughed, which means they can’t work for the government and their pay is suspended during the shutdown but is also subject to back-pay guarantees.
People contracting with the federal government are not protected with a back-pay guarantee and their status depends on their private employer.
What is the current budget dispute about?
Since the last short-term budget deal passed in March, Democrats have seen Republicans enact further cutbacks to government agencies and pass Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will effectively require cutbacks in Medicaid services for poor and rural residents beginning in 2027.
Aside from that, a temporary, pandemic-era program that extended eligibility for discounted health insurance for working-class Americans expires in December. Democrats want to preserve those subsidies and caps on out-of-pocket expenses.
Just months after Republicans narrowly passed Trump’s domestic agenda, they are not ready to strip out big portions of it. Besides the policy battles over cutting Medicaid services, abandoning those expected cuts now would effectively add even more debt to the $4 trillion estimated cost of the legislation.
The White House is threatening to further slash the federal work force if a shutdown happens, raising the stakes for any standoff.
Are lawmakers close to reaching a deal?
It doesn’t look that way.
Deals can come together quickly, especially as the Oct. 1 deadline approaches. But there has been little direct negotiations.
Trump canceled a scheduled Sept. 25 meeting with Democratic leaders from the House and Senate.
Democrats were torn on making a deal with the White House in March and the consensus seems to be that this time there is little upside to doing so. Some Republicans in competitive districts have suggested a willingness to temporarily extend the insurance premium subsidies, perhaps by another year.
The subtext to the entire standoff is the 2026 midterm elections are getting closer, and both parties want to convince their supporters they can deliver what the voters presumably want.
When was the last shutdown?
In December 2018, Trump and Democrats had a 35-day stalemate over his desire to include more than $5 billion in funding for barriers along the southern border.
Democrats, coming off a successful midterm election the month before, didn’t buckle to Trump’s insistence on money for the project. Trump eventually relented to a negotiation period followed by a deal that didn’t provide the money he sought.
Public opinion broadly supported the Democrats at the time of the dispute that turned into the longest shutdown in the nation’s history. It straddled the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, perhaps blunting some of the impact it might have otherwise carried.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office later estimated the shutdown “delayed approximately $18 billion in federal discretionary spending for compensation and purchases of goods and services and suspended some federal services.”
That lowered economic output in the holiday season by an estimated 0.1 percent of gross domestic product, but may have briefly increased output once the shutdown ended.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Government shutdown 2025: Here’s what to know about what could happen