A tropical storm watch remains in effect for a portion of Florida’s east coast Sunday, Sept. 28, as Tropical Depression 9 tracks toward the southeast U.S. coast, expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda later today, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
At 8 a.m., Tropical Depression Nine was located about 100 miles west-southwest of the central Bahamas, with 35-mph winds.
The system is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Imelda by this afternoon as it moves north-northwestward over the central and northwestern Bahamas, then become a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday as it parallels the Atlantic coast of Florida.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The depression is forecast to move over central and northwestern Bahamas today and tonight and approach the U.S. coast early this week.
While there’s still uncertainty about the storm’s long-term track, most models now keep the system offshore of the southeastern United States, though impacts are still anticipated.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central and northwestern areas of the Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through tonight and the east coast of central Florida beginning Monday.
Multiple rounds of rainfall are forecast through early Tuesday, with amounts of 1 to 3 inches along and east of Interstate 95 and higher amounts possible where persistent rainbands stall, especially along the coast. Localized flooding is possible.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are likely for much of the east-central Florida coastline.
Swells generated by this system and Category 4 Hurricane Humberto in the southwestern subtropical Atlantic will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause flash, urban and river flooding into Wednesday morning.
Residents are advised to monitor the forecast for updates and ensure their emergency plan is ready.
Florida forecast: East Coast on Tropical Storm Watch. Here’s what to expect
Where is Tropical Depression 9, future Tropical Storm Imelda?
At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 77.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. A faster motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today and tonight and approach the southeast U.S. coast early this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Tropical Storm Watch issued for portion of Florida
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador
Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.
Key messages for Tropical Depression 9, soon to be Imelda
The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into Wednesday morning.
There is still a risk of heavy rainfall, wind and high surf impacts for the southeast U.S. coast even if the center remains offshore. Residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
Winds forecast
Hazards affecting land from future Tropical Storm Imelda
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the east coast of Florida on Monday.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 7 inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in further adjustments to these rainfall totals.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Spaghetti models for PTC 9, future Imelda
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Where is Hurricane Humberto?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
At 5 a.m., the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 63.3 West.
Humberto is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph.
A turn toward the northwest is expected this morning, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Monday evening. Humberto is forecast to then turn north-northeastward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts.
Humberto is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto should remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb.
Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Humberto
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Memories of Hurricane Helene fresh as eyes keep wary eye on tropics
A combination of weather factors and geography helped make Hurricane Helene one of the most brutal storms in the modern history of hurricanes.
Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean on Sept. 24, 2024, and rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 hurricane before making landfall near Perry, Florida, less than 72 hours later.
➤ Hurricane Helene began a path of destruction a year ago. Why was it was so deadly?
Then a double whammy from a colliding weather pattern set up historic rainfall across the North Carolina and Tennessee mountains.
A year later, many hurricane victims from Florida to Tennessee continue to struggle with attempts to rebuild and recover.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching, while shelves are fully stocked and you aren’t battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
“It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax-free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need
Here are some of the basics you should have:
Two-week supply of medications
A go-bag with essential supplies in case you need to leave quickly
Portable cellphone chargers
List of emergency phone numbers, including those for family members
Copy of your insurance policy
Florida weather radar for Sept. 28, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Hurricane season’s ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)
Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26)
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Imelda to form soon. Path, track, Florida impact