The National Hurricane Center continues to track possible tropical or subtropical development this weekend or early next week from near Florida to off the Southeast Coast. Regardless of whether that happens, rainy weather will impact Florida and possibly the coastal Carolinas through the holiday weekend.
Timing And Development Chances
The first step in any development chance is for low pressure to spin up in association with a dissipating front over water off the Southeast Coast. If that happens and the low becomes become better defined, then a subtropical or tropical depression could form this weekend into early next week.
Atmospheric conditions are only marginally conducive, so only slow development of a subtropical or tropical depression is possible, the National Hurricane Center says. We don’t expect any system to become strong if development did occur.
If this system somehow strengthened into a storm then it would be named Chantal.
(MORE: 5 Ways Tropical Storms Can Form)
Impacts Are Expected, Regardless
The large-scale weather pattern in association with this setup will allow showers and storms to blanket Florida over the next several days. These thunderstorms will come in several rounds or bands and could be more persistent than the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Multi-inch rainfall totals are possible in spots through the weekend, especially in central and southern Florida.
The beach forecast this holiday weekend will be touch and go, so be sure to have a plan B and a way to shelter from lightning. Rip currents will also be possible through the holiday weekend.
If a low pressure system develops, some onshore winds and rainfall could also redevelop late this weekend along the Southeast Coast.
Rainfall Forecast
With many people heading to the beach for the 4th of July weekend, check back often for forecast updates as we continue to track this area of possible development.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.