Among potential GOP candidates for Florida governor in 2026, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads First Lady Casey DeSantis by 19 percentage points, 44%–25%, according to a new statewide poll of registered voters by a conservative Tallahassee-based think tank.
But that support came after the James Madison Institute’s sample of 516 registered Republican voters, out of 1,200 registered voters altogether, were told President Donald Trump had endorsed Donalds – the only officially-declared leading Republican in the race.
Before being told of the Trump endorsement, Mrs. DeSantis was statistically tied with Donalds, of Naples, at 29% and 28% respectively. The margin of error of the survey, which was conducted May 5 to 7, is 2.77%.
Casey DeSantis speaks during a press conference in the Cabinet Room on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.
“Trump’s endorsement carries huge weight among Republican voters, but half (didn’t) know it happened” till they were told, the institute’s press release said. (The poll results were released to reporters the evening of May 8 but embargoed till May 9.)
Casey DeSantis and Gov. Ron DeSantis have been buffeted for weeks by news reports related to her signature Hope Florida initiative, billed as a conservative alternative to traditional welfare programs. That controversy wasn’t brought up to poll respondents, according to the released poll questions.
A panel of the GOP-led Florida House and news outlets have been digging into a $10 million donation directed to the program’s fundraising arm, and whether that money then was improperly diverted – amounting to a sort of campaign-finance money laundering. The DeSantises have strenuously denied any wrongdoing.
Moreover, the closest Mrs. DeSantis has come to confirming her much speculated-about candidacy was saying, “We’ll see,” when asked at a conservative summit in Maryland in March. Before that, her husband threw cold water on the idea of a bid, telling Fox News’ Laura Ingraham in February that it’s “not something that she’s seeking out … but it’s flattering.”
From February: Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis most favored among potential GOP candidates, poll shows
May JMI poll followed similar one in April
The institute actually commissioned two public opinion polls, one in April and the latest in early May. But the April poll didn’t make clear to respondents that Trump gave the thumbs up to Donalds.
The earlier poll also was conducted before South Florida state Sen. Jason Pizzo left the Democratic Party. Pizzo’s announcement that he was stepping down as Senate Democratic leader and becoming a ‘no party affiliated’ lawmaker came on the floor of the Senate on April 24, two days after that poll closed.
In April, he polled at a whopping 42% “among Democrats or those leaning Democratic.” Still undeclared, he’s teased his own run for months. Now he can’t run in Florida’s closed primary system.
Sen. Jason Pizzo stands next to one of his sons for the National Anthem during the opening day of the Florida legislative session, Tuesday, March 4, 2025.
Asking again in May, the JMI poll found Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava jumped to 32% among the poll’s 396 registered Democrats from 15% the month before. And former Tallahassee congresswoman Gwen Graham, most recently an education official in the Biden administration, went up to 13% support from 5%.
Another former Florida congressman, Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly of Pinellas County, went from 9% support in April to 10% in May.
Of all those polled in May, a combined 85% said they “always” or “nearly always” vote in elections. Also, 43% identified as Republican, 33% as Democratic and 23% as “independent.” But 34% overall identified as “moderate.”
In this 2021 file photo, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava is at a press conference on the Champlain Towers South condominium collapse.
In one hypothetical general election matchup, Donalds overtook Levine Cava 38%–34%, with Pizzo garnering 5% as an independent candidate and 23% saying they were undecided. In another, Casey DeSantis beats Levine Cava 39%–35%, with Pizzo at 8% and undecideds at 18%.
“DeSantis and Donalds are polling close to 40%, roughly the share of registered Republicans in Florida,” the press release said. “That suggests early general election support is tracking closely with partisan ID, with a large share of voters currently undecided or soft in their preferences.”
Both the April and May polls were conducted by Targoz Market Research of Nashville, Tennessee.
Read more at JMIpoll.com.
This story contains previously published material. Jim Rosica is a member of the USA TODAY Network – Florida Capital Bureau. Reach him at jrosica@tallahassee.com and follow him on Twitter/X: @JimRosicaFL.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Poll: Byron Donalds surges past Casey DeSantis with Trump backing