The stayed soft in Asia following dovish remarks from on Friday. Waller signalled openness to a , diverging from his colleagues’ cautious stance. This shifted market expectations: while the July FOMC is still seen as a hold (95% odds), the probability of a 25-bps cut in September rose to 61%, up from 55% a week ago, per CME FedWatch data.
Asia-Pacific Markets Mixes
Asia Pacific stock markets opened the week on a mixed note. Singapore’s (STI) led the pack, surging 0.5% intraday to a new all-time high of 4,225, breaking above the psychological 4,200 mark and continuing its bullish run.
Singapore Leads Asia as STI Hits Record High, Hang Seng Extends Gains, ASX 200 Lags
Hong Kong’s added 0.3%, building on last Friday’s breakout above the 19 March 2025 high. In contrast, Australia’s underperformed with a sharp 1.2% decline, reflecting divergent regional market sentiment.
Japan Markets React Calmly to the Election Outcome
Sunday’s Upper House election in Japan resulted in the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition losing its majority. However, the market response was relatively muted as the outcome had already been priced in. The Japanese yen recovered 0.4% intraday after falling to a three-month low last week. gained 0.3% on Globex trading, although the Tokyo market remained shut for a public holiday.
Yen, Aussie, Sterling Gain; Gold Extends Rebound
In the FX space, the led gains (0.4%) during the Asian session, followed by the and (both up 0.2%). The softer US dollar supported Gold (), which posted a 0.6% intraday gain, marking its second consecutive daily advance, as it eyes the US$3,374 resistance level set on 14 July.
Economic Data Releases
Source: MarketPulse
Chart of the Day – Gold (XAU/USD) Looks Poised for a Potential Minor Bullish Breakout
Source: TradingView
The recent minor sideways range compression of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since 3 July has reached a potential tipping point for at least a minor breakout scenario.
Two key elements have increased the odds of a bullish breakout scenario. Firstly, Gold (XAU/USD) has retested the medium-term ascending trendline support in place since 31 December 2024 low for the third time on last Thursday, 21 July.
Secondly, in conjunction with the third retest on the medium-term ascending trendline support of Gold (XAU/USD), the hourly MACD trend indicator has traced a bullish divergence condition on 17 July, inched higher, and staged a MACD-Signal line bullish crossover in today’s Asia session at this time of writing.
Watch the US$3,328 short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above US$3,374 upside trigger level may see a minor bullish breakout unfolding for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$3,400 and US$3,450 in the first step.
On the flip side, failure to hold at US$3,328 invalidates the bullish scenario for another round of minor choppy corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,309, and US$3,293/3,282.