- USD/CHF finds resistance at 20-day SMA
- Remains below downtrend line
- MACD and RSI show contradicting signs
is showing modest gains today as traders await the later in the day. Market consensus points to the SNB holding rates steady, following a series of five 25 bps cuts over the past year.
The pair has rebounded from the 14-year low of 0.7828, currently testing the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7960. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for a retest of the medium-term descending trendline and the 50-day SMA around 0.8000. If these resistance levels are breached, the outlook may shift to neutral, with further upside potential toward the 0.8075 resistance and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader downtrend from 0.9200 to 0.7828, located at 0.8150.
On the flip side, a failure to overcome the 20-day SMA or the downtrend line could trigger renewed selling pressure. In such a scenario, the pair may revisit the 0.7825 support zone, with a deeper decline possibly targeting the September 2011 lows at 0.7690.
Momentum indicators offer mixed signals. The RSI is moving sideways below the neutral 50 level, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed above its trigger line but remains below the zero threshold.
To sum up, USD/CHF is ticking higher, but key resistance levels must be cleared to confirm a neutral-to-bullish reversal. Until then, downside risks remain in play.