· Stochastic eases and RSI flattens
USD/JPY is still trading within a narrow range of 146.60–148.50, as investors await the release of the latest PCE price index for further policy guidance.
From a technical perspective, the medium-term outlook remains bullish as long as the price holds above the ascending trendline. However, a daily close below the lower boundary of the range at 146.60 could signal increased downside risk, potentially exposing the pair to support levels at 145.70 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 154.80–139.85 decline, located at 144.35. A sustained move below these levels would likely shift the bias to neutral.
On the upside, a breakout above 148.50 would encounter immediate resistance at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 148.75. Further gains could be challenged by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 149.40, while a decisive move above the previous high near 151.00 would reinforce the broader bullish trend.
Technical indicators currently suggest a neutral to bearish bias. The stochastic oscillator is approaching oversold territory, and the RSI is flattening just below the 50 mark, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction.
While USDJPY remains range-bound, the prevailing bullish structure is intact above 146.60. A break above 148.50 could revive upward momentum, but failure to hold above key support levels may shift sentiment toward a more neutral stance.
