This could be a pivotal week in the markets. We get a ton of key economic data, over 1/3rd of companies will report earnings, and the index is pinned at or near key resistance levels that could define whether this rally has legs.
Tuesday: (7.48 million job openings est.) & Case schiller home price index (+4.6% y/y est.)
Wednesday: private sector employment (+123K est.) Q1 1st estimate (+0.4% est.), inflation index (+0.1% m/m est.), (+0.4% est.), & (+0.6% est.)
The main event will be Q1 GDP and personal spending. Estimates range from +0.4% to -0.3% from the . There is no question the economy slowed in Q1, we’ll get the answer of just how much it is slowing. It’s possible that we are already in recession if Q1 comes in negative, since Q2 will likely slow even more.
Spending is almost 70% of GDP. Real spending in 2025 has already been disappointing. January was the worst month in 4 years, and February didn’t gain back much. We are already starting to see signs of consumers pulling back, as discretionary categories like charitable giving and restaurants/bars showed noticeable declines.
Thursday: (48.0 est.)
The consensus estimate is for the manufacturing sector to contract for the 2nd straight month. But results could come in better than expectations if customers front-run the tariffs.
Friday: (129K jobs created, 4.2% UE rate, & 0.3% wage gains are the estimates)
Until it starts showing up the jobs data, it’s hard to imagine a nasty recession.
Earnings: 180 S&P 500 companies report results this week. Notables are Visa (NYSE:) on Tuesday, Microsoft (NASDAQ:) and Meta (NASDAQ:) on Wednesday, Apple (NASDAQ:) and Amazon (NASDAQ:) on Thursday.
As you can see, it’s going to be a very busy week. On top of it all, the S&P 500 index is at/near important levels. We pushed above 5500 on Friday, the next key level is the liberation day open gap, for a return to the scene of the crime.
Of course, trade details will continue to be the backdrop that moves markets. But there is enough data this week to give us an idea of what we’ve already got ourselves into.