Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to sweep across western New York Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest risks including damaging wind gusts, hail, and the potential for an isolated tornado, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo.
Two rounds of storms expected Tuesday
Western New Yorkers should brace for two rounds of storms:
Late Tuesday morning: Showers are expected to move through the region, with breezy but warm conditions. Highs could reach around 80 degrees before the front pushes through. This first round is expected around 11 a.m. near Buffalo and around noon in the Rochester region.
Tuesday afternoon to evening: This will bring the main event, as a strong cold front triggers more intense storms.
“The second round is the one to watch,” said Weather Service Meteorologist Tony Ansuini. “This is when we expect the most severe activity.”
Weather Service Meteorologist Liz Jurkowski said that the Genesee Valley region, which includes Rochester and its surrounding counties, is expected to see the “worst of the severe weather.”
Storm timing by region
Lake Erie shoreline: Storms could begin as early as 3 to 4 p.m.
Rochester area: The strongest storms are expected to move through between 4 and 10 p.m.
Other parts of western and central NY: Timing will vary, but the afternoon through early evening is the most likely window for severe weather.
Counties that could be impacted include Monroe, Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Wayne, Ontario, Genesee, Chautauqua, Allegany, and others across the western and north-central region.
Hazards to watch for
Damaging wind gusts that may exceed 60 mph
Potential power outages and downed trees or power lines
“Hail and significant wind gusts are the biggest concern,” said Weather Service Meteorologist Steve Welch. “But we can’t rule out an isolated tornado.”
What happens after the storm?
Following Tuesday’s stormy weather, temperatures in the Rochester region are expected to drop to the mid-50s on Wednesday, before rebounding into the upper 60s on Thursday and Friday, with more showers likely as May begins. The normal high for the final week of April is 63 degrees, according to the Weather Service.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: When will NY storm hit? Timing Tuesday’s severe weather