Sell in May and go away? Not so fast.
As it turns out, the market has finished positively for the month of May in 11 of the last 12 years. For an average return of 1.14%.
Despite all the volatility in April, the closed less than 1% lower. Another example of why it’s so hard to time these markets. You never want to make “all in” or “all out” decisions, even if the thought process is sound.
So the S&P 500 index has now closed negative for the 3rd straight month. But here’s the thing: the last time the index closed negative for 4 straight months was back in 2011.
Ironically, that was also a period where US exceptionalism was in question. As the US debt was downgraded for the first time in history.
The difference between then and now is that back then, money continued to pour into treasury bonds and , whereas this time we’ve had the opposite reaction.
So, where does this lead us? I honestly have no idea. This is the most “head-scratching” rally I’ve seen in a long time. I’ll continue to lighten up on stock allocation during the rallies, and add back if we get much better prices.