Tropical Storm Imelda is likely to form within the next 24 hours east of Florida and, nearby, Hurricane Humberto has intensified into a Category 4 major storm.
The highly unusual set-up so close to the U.S. continues to cause significant forecast uncertainty. Will Imelda make landfall somewhere along the southeast coast? Or will Humberto grab on and pull it east?
Even in the latter scenario, which would spare Georgia and the Carolinas from a direct hit, Imelda would “still be large enough and close enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding concerns in inland areas,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said in ther Saturday morning advisory.
In the most dangerous scenario, a landfall by Imelda, catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall would likely occur.
Forecast models remain split on Saturday morning, the Hurricane Center said. On Friday they were indicating a landfall. But by Saturday morning, the majority of the models showed Imelda slowing down significantly — possibly even stalling — directly off the coast and then turning east and out to sea by the pull of Humberto.
Imelda could briefly become a hurricane in the early to middle part of next week, which is when it will be closest to the U.S. coast.
For now, tropical storm warnings are posted throughout the Bahamas, where flash and urban flooding are likely, with mudslides possible in the higher terrain.
South Florida will most likely see rough waters starting Sunday as the storm passes to the east, National Weather Service Miami said in a Friday evening briefing. Less likely impacts could be the storm’s outer fringes bringing rounds of heavy rain and winds to South Florida.
Though the storm is expected to stay east of South Florida, the Weather Service said the exact path it takes will affect how much rainfall the region sees. If it tracks closer to the peninsula, it could lead to higher rainfall totals along the eastern coast.
“Currently, the likely scenarios show the developing storm passing offshore of the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach metro area,” Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote in his blog, Hurricane Intel. “But on Sunday, disruptive weather in the form of bands of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Again, it depends on exactly where the storm ends up forming.
Forecasters warned that an increasing threat of heavy rain should be expected early next week from coastal Georgia to the Carolinas, with the potential for flash, urban and river flooding.
“There is a strong consensus in the various computer forecasts that Imelda will likely track to the north, paralleling the Florida coast at least through the weekend,” Norcross said.
As of 5 a.m. Saturday, the seeds of Imelda — currently designated potential Tropical Cyclone Nine — had sustained winds of 35 mph off the northeast tip of Cuba, though it did not yet have a define core. It was moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph.
The system is already causing heavy rains and gusty winds across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, forecasters said.
The most significant influence on the track of Imelda is Hurricane Humberto to its east.
“A slight difference in track, speed, and intensity looks to decide whether Imelda curves into the Southeast coast or gets pulled out to sea by its big brother Humberto,” Norcross said.
Spaghetti models for the storm show computer predictions split on which scenario unfolds.
As of Saturday morning, Humberto’s maximum sustained wind speeds had increased to 145 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. It was located about 375 miles northeast of the Caribbean islands, with hurricane-force winds extending 25 miles out from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward 105 miles.
Swells generated by Humberto, likely to cause heavy surf and rip currents, will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda this weekend.
Humberto is tracking slowly to the northwest and is forecast to speed up, and turn north early next week.
Humberto “will likely create rough surf and rip currents that could impact beaches across the Bahamas and the East Coast starting this weekend,” AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva said. “People in Bermuda and along the East Coast should monitor forecast updates closely. The storm may develop quickly.”
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.