had beats top and bottom and gave decent guidance, but the data center numbers were less than stellar, and China remains murky. More was expected from the most valuable company in the world. The stock traded modestly lower and is essentially flat, less than $5 from its all-time high. The big losers here are the option buyers, whose premiums got them nothing.
Early in the day, stocks are mixed, with the Dow and down 0.2%, the NASDAQ up 0.3%, and the flat. The Magnificent 7 is also flat, while the even-weighted S&P is down 0.4%. The big wait for NVIDIA earnings did not produce fireworks in either direction. With stocks at all-time highs, it’s basically a win.
Interest rates are also subdued. The 2-year is up 1bps, the 10-year down 1bps. The US dollar index is down 0.2, to 97.9; it’s been wrapped around 98 all month.
On the economic front, came in slightly below forecasts, though above the last print, both the initial and continuing jobless claims. Both the for 2Q25 and the came in right on forecast, both well below 1Q25 levels. The for 2Q25, the revised number from the 30-Jun-25 estimate, came in at +3.3%, above the +3.0% estimate.
Precious metals are higher modestly, as are industrial metals, while crude oil is softer and natural gas is stronger. Crypto is moving sideways, though Bitcoin has made it back to $113K.
With NVIDIA behind us, the Fed cut becomes front and center. The bet for a quarter point in September is approaching 90%, while another cut in October has fallen to 44%, and a third cut in December is down to 33%.
Today, the one sector in the green is tech, once again, with momentum and growth leading. The AI theme remains intact. The S&P has gone back into the green and is only 6 points from the all-time high. The NASDAQ has caught a bid and has jumped up 0.6%. The Russell 2000 is back to flat and is the big winner in August on the prospects of lower interest rates, now up 5.2% for the trailing month, more than double the #2 NASDAQ’s +2.3%. The trend remains positive.